Germany’s Conservatives Celebrate Victory, But Far-Right AfD Achieves Historic Gains

CDU Leads Election Results While AfD Surges to Second Place

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, has emerged as the leading party in Germany’s federal election, securing approximately 28.6% of the vote along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). While the CDU’s performance was strong, it fell short of the 30% threshold they had hoped for, leaving them in need of coalition partners to form a stable government.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured an unprecedented 20.8% of the vote, marking its best result in history and positioning itself as the second-largest party in the Bundestag. Despite the AfD’s gains, their internal expectations were even higher, and the subdued atmosphere at their headquarters reflected a sense of unfulfilled potential. Nonetheless, their performance in eastern Germany was dominant, with projections showing them leading in the region with around 34% of the vote.

Friedrich Merz addressed his supporters, expressing gratitude for their backing and emphasizing the responsibility that now lies ahead. “Let’s celebrate tonight, but tomorrow we get to work,” he declared. Meanwhile, AfD’s Alice Weidel seized the moment to declare that German voters had signaled a demand for change, predicting potential early elections if coalition talks falter.

Germany’s high voter turnout, reaching 83%, the highest since reunification in 1990, reflects the electorate’s strong engagement in shaping the nation’s political future. However, the fractured results present significant challenges for coalition formation.

Coalition Challenges Loom Amid Political Shifts

Merz has firmly ruled out any collaboration with the AfD, maintaining the long-standing political “firewall” that prevents mainstream parties from partnering with the far right. This leaves the CDU/CSU with limited options, primarily the struggling Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens. However, with the SPD suffering its worst-ever election result at 16.4% and Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledging a bitter defeat, their willingness to join a coalition appears low. Scholz has already indicated he will not participate in coalition negotiations.

The Greens, securing around 11.6% of the vote, remain another potential partner, but Friedrich Merz’s previous dismissive remarks about their policies could complicate discussions. His criticism of the Greens’ co-leader Robert Habeck as a mere “representative for heat pumps” just before the election underscores the ideological divide between the two parties.

With no clear two-party majority in sight, Germany faces a complex political landscape where negotiations could be protracted. If Merz fails to construct a viable coalition, the country may see another round of elections sooner than expected, as AfD leader Weidel has predicted.

AfD’s Rise Reshapes German Politics

The AfD’s record-breaking result reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the status quo, fueled by concerns over economic stagnation, rising immigration, and security issues. The party’s ability to leverage social media effectively and capitalize on voter discontent has significantly boosted its electoral performance, doubling its vote share since 2021.

Despite their strong showing, the AfD remains politically isolated, as major parties continue to reject any form of cooperation. Nevertheless, their influence in shaping political debates has grown, and their presence as the second-largest party will undoubtedly impact legislative discussions in the Bundestag.

Political Uncertainty as Germany Moves Forward

Germany now enters a period of political uncertainty, with coalition talks set to define the country’s governance for the coming years. The CDU/CSU must navigate complex negotiations to establish a functional administration with a solid parliamentary majority. The path forward remains unclear, but the election results underscore a shifting political landscape where traditional power structures are being challenged.

The coming weeks will determine whether Friedrich Merz can successfully form a stable government or if Germany will face continued political deadlock, potentially leading to new elections. Regardless of the outcome, the rise of the AfD signals a fundamental shift in German politics, with long-term implications for both domestic and European affairs.